Against all odds, in the final stretch of this election, reliably red Texas is playing a major role in the battle for control of both the U.S. House and Senate.
That’s put a spotlight on San Antonio and South Texas, where Republicans redrew the maps to pick up congressional seats this cycle, but are now scrambling to shore up should-be-safe contests.
Since we last ranked the top races in June, President Donald Trump has campaigned in San Antonio to help embattled Republican Ken Paxton, who is polling behind Democrat James Talarico in Texas’ U.S. Senate race, and Congressional hopeful Carlos De La Cruz, whose new San Antonio-area seat has been dubbed the “whole enchilada” in the battle for the U.S. House.
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Republicans still have many built-in advantages in both races, but these are remarkable developments.
The GOP can only afford to lose a handful of seats in either chamber while maintaining their majorities — and now faces unusual headwinds from Trump’s record-low approval and last-minute primary meddling.
“[Texas] should be a lock,” San Antonio Republican strategist Kelton Morgan said in an Oct. 6 interview. ” … And yet things are so bad, the president of the United States is coming to the most Republican state in the union to drag a Republican Senate candidate over the line — and there’s still better than a 50-50 chance he’s going to fail.”
While their grasp on Congress is precarious, Texas Republicans enter this election cycle with a decades-long lock on the governor’s office, statewide leadership posts and the Texas Legislature. Those positions are also on the ballot this November, and Democrats now believe they have their best opportunity in many years to flip one or more statewide posts.
They’re urging national party leaders to invest in Gov. Greg Abbott’s Democratic challenger, Gina Hinojosa, and money is already flowing to Democratic candidates in a dozen GOP-held Texas House seats, including two here in San Antonio.
“For three decades, we have been waiting for the opportunity that is before us right now, to finally break the chokehold that one-party rule has had on our great state of Texas,” former San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg sized up Democrats’ situation at an Hinojosa rally last month.
Nirenberg is part of a slate of Democrats running to bring fresh leadership to Bexar County’s top leadership posts, which are also on the Nov. 3 ballot.
Those positions don’t turn over often, but are guaranteed to see change this year after a handful of incumbents either retired or lost their primaries.
Here are the top races the reporters and editors of the San Antonio Report will be watching in the November 2026 midterm election.
1. Texas Senate race
The U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton is the top-of-the-ticket race for Texans in 2026 — meaning the campaign spending, grassroots organization and messaging from these two candidates will set the tone for every other race on the ballot.
Right now that has Republicans worried, because their preferred candidate lost in the primary, and the one they got is trailing in both polling and fundraising.
National Republicans preferred their odds with U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), and broke spending records warning their party that Paxton was too damaged from an affair and other conduct allegations to be the nominee in a tough cycle.
But Trump wanted to reboot the GOP to install his own allies, and swooped in at the last minute to endorse Paxton, who defeated Cornyn by a 28-point margin in the primary runoff.
Republicans control 53 out of 100 U.S. Senate seats, which seemed safe at the beginning of the cycle, but now appears more at risk as polls show their candidates trailing Democratic challengers in red states.
Now the GOP is pulling money out of North Carolina and spending big to help Paxton, while Trump is trying rally a fractured Republican Party that loses interest when he’s not on the ballot.
As CNN political analyst Ronald Brownstein wrote in June, “who stays home may threaten Republicans this year as much as who votes.”
Democrats are cautiously optimistic about Talarico, a telegenic nominee who’s been raking in cash to assemble the most modern and professionalized campaign that money can buy.
But they’ve watched candidates do this and still fail for several cycles now — with Beto O’Rourke coming the closest in his 2018 race against U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz — and still losing by about 215,000 votes.
Last election cycle, Trump set a high-water mark for Republicans in Texas, leveraging big frustration with the border to carry the state by 13.7% points.
Since then the president’s popularity has waned as he moved on to more controversial immigration enforcement tactics, Morgan said, but Talarico faces a daunting task winning back roughly 750,000 reliable Democratic voters who either flipped for Trump two years ago or didn’t vote at all.
In an Oct. 13 interview, Katherine Fischer, executive director of the Democratic Texas Majority PAC, said poll after poll indicates Hispanic voters are fleeing the Republican Party, even those who say they supported Trump in 2024.
“Beto got really close in 2018, but the conditions are even better now, and the Democratic political infrastructure is significantly better,” Fischer said.
“We’ve been losing for a long time and these are hard races, but we have great candidates with bad opponents, and we’re operating in in great conditions. So I’m cautiously optimistic.”
2. Texas House District 118
This Southside state House district was a blue stronghold before state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) flipped it in 2022, a good year for Republicans.
In gerrymandered Texas, it’s one of only state legislative districts that remains competitive enough to go either way in November, and Democrats think it should be theirs now that they’re headed into favorable midterm conditions.
Their nominee, Kristian Carranza, worked on many Texas Democrats’ campaigns before running against Lujan in 2024, and she raised more money than any first-time state House candidate in Texas history.
Lujan left the seat to run for Congress this year, and GOP primary voters didn’t go along with his plan to nominate a moderate in his place.
Instead Carranza will go up against conservative Republican Jorge Borrego, an equally well-connected up-and-comer in his party who helped shepherd Abbott’s school voucher plan while working at the conservative Texas Public Policy Foundation.
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Because so few districts are competitive, it’s unlikely Democrats could flip enough seats to upend Republicans’ 26-seat majority in the Texas House this election cycle.
But both state and national Democrats consider Texas House District 118 a must-win if they’re going to gain any power in the chamber responsible for drawing Texas’ political maps, and there’s national money pouring in to help their cause.
In a tough election cycle, Republicans aren’t sure if they can’t hold onto this seat, but it’s still poised to be a major battleground.
HD118 overlaps with the fiercely contested 35th Congressional District — where both parties are fighting over once-Democratic voters who either didn’t show up in 2024, or swung toward President Donald Trump.
“[House District] 118 is completely housed within [Congressional District 35], and it also includes a significant chunk of Bexar County that is absolutely critical [for Democrats in 2026],” Fischer said in February. ” … We need to see better turnout in that [area] in order to win statewide.”
3. Texas’ 35th Congressional District
The new 35th Congressional District is a product of President Donald Trump’s efforts to squeeze more Republican congressional seats out of Texas this year — deemed the “whole enchilada” of the 2026 House map by House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-San Antonio).
So-called midterm elections are often seen as referendums on the party controlling the White House, causing its members to lose seats.
In an effort to avoid that, Trump got Texas GOP leaders to redraw the congressional maps outside of the Census cycle last summer, breaking up safe blue districts like the one represented by U.S. Rep. Greg Casar (D-San Antonio).
Democrats were at first skeptical about their chances in a district Trump would have carried by more than 10 percentage points under its new boundaries.
But as the president has become less popular, they now consider it one of their biggest battlegrounds of the 2026 midterms.
Casar’s old district was turned into a GOP pickup opportunity by combining part of San Antonio with three counties Trump carried in 2024: Karnes, Wilson and Guadalupe.
That drew a lot of interest from San Antonio’s local political talent, but the GOP wound up with Carlos De La Cruz as its nominee — a retired U.S. Air Force veteran who scored a Trump endorsement in the primary but wasn’t well-known among local party activists in Bexar County.
Roughly 70% of the district’s voters live in Bexar County, but De La Cruz won a primary runoff against state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) by running up the score in the more rural parts, currently represented by his sister, U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Edinburg).
His low-visibility campaign is now working to introduce him to voters here for a general election, while a Trump-aligned PAC reserved $4 million worth of ads to help him.
Democrats tried and failed to recruit a seasoned candidate for this race, but they’re pleased to have at least gotten a moderate through the primary.
They spent big helping a first-time candidate, longtime Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia, defeat a more progressive opponent in hopes of winning back Hispanic voters who swung toward Trump.
National Democrats lined up big ad reservations months ago to help him.
Morgan said it’s unlikely the candidates will matter as much as the spending in the final days, given the role this race plays on the national map.
“There are some cases where the campaigns themselves are incidental to everything that’s going on, and I think TX35 might see that,” Morgan said. “What happens on the ground in South Texas this year probably doesn’t matter all that much because 10 times that much money is going to come in on TV and digital and mail from Washington.”
WATCH: Carlos De La Cruz, Johnny Garcia face off in only TX35 forum
Whoever this district elects in November will have a big job representing San Antonio in a delegation that shrunk in redistricting, and then lost seasoned members to retirements and scandal.
4. Texas’ 23rd Congressional District
This massive San Antonio-to-El Paso district was once a top target for both parties — taken off the map by redistricting after the 2020 Census, which added more Republicans.
Now Democrats are ramping up to spend here again, even though the makeup remains far more challenging than the typical Congressional target.
Their reason for optimism is mostly due to turmoil among Republicans.
First the incumbent, U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio), was pushed to a runoff in his primary. Then a high-profile affair forced Gonzales to drop his reelection bid and resign before the end of his term, automatically making his runoff opponent, 30-year-old gun content creator Brandon Herrera, the GOP nominee.
Herrera’s attention-grabbing YouTube channel has opened him up to criticism from Republicans and Democrats alike, but he now has the backing of national GOP leaders who once distanced themselves from him.
The district supported President Donald Trump by nearly 15 percentage points in 2024, and Herrera says he doesn’t see the need to moderate or court a broader audience for the general election.
But left-leaning groups have piled in to help Democratic nominee Katy Padilla Stout, a former teacher and child welfare attorney, who was recruited to help capitalize on a potential GOP meltdown.
House Democrats’ largest super PAC reserved TV ads here to help her, and Padilla Stout made a last-minute staff overhaul to bring in experts from D.C.
“The fundamentals of this district are pretty hard, and it’s important to still be real that Katy’s in a very hard race,” said Emma Brown, a former national Democratic operative who is now executive director of the gun safety group helping Padilla Stout. “But Brandon Herrera and his self-inflicted challenges have really put this race on the map.”
Gov. Greg Abbott could have called a special election to fill this seat before November, but he let the deadline pass without commenting.
5. Texas House District 121
This Northside state House race is once again a target for Democrats, who continue to hope the GOP’s rightward shift will drive away enough moderates to put it in play.
The old Joe Straus district includes wealthy suburbs of San Antonio, which favored more business-centric Republicans.
But Texas House District 121 added some redder territory up north after the 2020 Census, and then its longtime incumbent fell to an insurgent primary challenger, Marc LaHood, who had the help of conservative groups.
LaHood, a criminal defense attorney, went on to align himself with the party’s conservative wing. He helped Gov. Greg Abbott pass his long-desired school voucher plan, bucked powerful business interests on their legal reform bills and raised money for Attorney General Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary.
The establishment wing of the GOP tried to push back with a primary challenge that went nowhere this year, despite much money spent on both sides.
Texas Democrats have named the race a top target in 2026, and on paper it looks like one of their best prospects.
But LaHood continues to benefitting from some unusual dynamics, after aligning himself with the trial lawyers who typically bankroll Texas Democrats’ campaigns.
That’s helped him outraise his Democratic opponent, Zack Dunn, a first-time candidate who worked as an assistant District Attorney at Bexar County before this race.
Dunn worked for an array of local Democrats earlier in his career, and most of his money came from state and national Democratic groups who see potential in a wave election.
The DLCC, a national Democratic group focused on flipping state legislatures, put Dunn on their list of top 10 candidates nationwide, and a different national Democratic PAC is attacking LaHood on his behalf.
6. Texas Governor’s race
This race is new to our list, as public polls show a tightening race.
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term, and would be the state’s longest-serving governor if he completes it.
He’s a prolific fundraiser who overwhelmingly defeated Democrat Beto O’Rourke in 2022, so most of the state’s ambitious Democrats looked instead at the U.S. Senate race this year, where there’s more national fundraising help.
Abbott now faces an energetic opponent in state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin), the daughter of a former Texas Democratic Party chair, who came in with little name ID or fundraising.
As recent polls showed a close race, Latino lawmakers wrote to the Democratic Governors Association seeking resources for to help her. This money has just started to flow, while Hinojosa has been outspent 5-to1.
Still, Abbott is running through an incredible war chest for a race few thought would be competitive. He reported about $17 million left on hand as of Sept. 24 — down from more than $100 million at the beginning of the cycle.
Fischer said that while Talarico has been ahead in nearly every U.S. Senate race poll for months now, Hinojosa has been up and down.
“Certainly she’s got a shot,” Fischer said. “We just don’t have as much confidence based on the polling as we do with James.”
Worth a watch
Bexar County Judge and District Attorney: While Texas Republicans haven’t lost a statewide office in more than three decades, when it comes to the local level, Democrats are the reigning champions.
They’ve controlled every countywide office for more than a decade, and hope to keep that going with former San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg as their nominee for Bexar County Judge, and former appellate judge Luz Elena Chapa as their candidate for District Attorney.
Both face Republican challengers who are underdogs on the Nov. 3 ballot.
Texas Attorney General race: With Attorney General Ken Paxton running for U.S. Senate instead of reelection, Texans will elect someone new to one of the most powerful statewide positions this year.
The state’s top lawyer has plenty of day-to-day responsibilities, like consumer protection and enforcing anti-trust laws. But in a red state, recent AGs have also used the role to aggressively advance conservative ideology through the courts.
The GOP nominee state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston) is an oil and gas heir whose culture wars at the capitol — most notably bathroom bills and keeping men out of women’s sports — have made him popular with the conservative base.
Democrats nominated state Sen. Nathan Johnson (D-Dallas), who flipped a Republican-held state Senate seat in 2018, who has been campaigning a message that AG offices are sometimes the first places where Republican power starts to crumble in red states.
Texas Railroad Commissioner: The Texas Railroad Commission has a big job regulating the state’s oil and gas industry but its elections typically fly under the radar.
This year that changed when Republican Bo French grabbed national headlines for a viral social media post many in his own party have decried as racist, causing some to abandon him in already unusual election cycle.
French defeated longtime incumbent Jim Wright in the GOP primary, and now faces a three-way general election against Democratic state Rep. Jon Rosenthal (D-Houston) and Libertarian candidate Arthur DiBianca.
After the Republican held up a photo of cheering University of Texas students as evidence the school is producing too many minority graduates, longtime GOP strategist Karl Rove said he’d vote for the Democrat over such “raw, uncut bigotry.”
French hasn’t totally been abandoned by far-right donors, but the latest campaign finance reports showed Rosenthal outraising him.
Fourth Court of Appeals: This regional appellate court elected three new Republican judges last election cycle — at a time when the local GOP had completely given up on trying to flip the county’s district court bench seats.
The court is located in San Antonio, but judges have to campaign across a 32-county voting base that includes parts of the Hill County and South Texas and has swung between supporting Democrats and Republicans in recent years.
This year a big contest is shaping up for an opening in the chief justice position, between Republican Bert Richardson, who is retiring from a higher court, and Democrat Antonia “Toni” Arteaga, who is one of Bexar County’s longest-serving district court judges.
225th Civil District Court: Of the 15 district court judges up this year, only Judge Christine Vasquez-Hortick faces a general election challenge.
Democrats have won every bench seat in blue Bexar County for several cycles now, and by Hortick’s own telling, the race is more symbolic of her disagreements with colleagues than a true political threat.
She spent her first term trying to end the presiding judge system that Bexar County has used for decades. Fellow Democrats who like they system were so teed-off, they encouraged Republican Judge Benjamin Robertson to run against her.
Robertson is currently a judge in a criminal district court, where he was appointed by Gov. Greg Abbott. He would have faced long odds in any countywide race, but planned to seek a civil bench anyway, since his background is in energy law.
