This story is part of the San Antonio Report’s 2026 Voter Guide. You can view all of the candidates on the Nov. 3 ballot here.
The battle for the U.S. House runs straight through San Antonio and South Texas this year, where millions of dollars are flowing to five key congressional races.
Their outcomes will help determine whether a Democrat-controlled House puts the brakes on President Donald Trump’s agenda — or continued GOP leadership gives him another two years of majority power.
Since Trump’s return to office, Republicans in the House and Senate have largely green-lit his aggressive immigration enforcement tactics, unpopular war in Iran and cuts to the social safety net.
Yet the GOP’s razor-thin House majority is so precarious this midterm election, Republicans placed an unusual gamble on South Texas to try to keep it.
Voters here swung hard toward Trump in 2024, and at the president’s urging, last year Republicans redrew Texas’ congressional maps to pack more GOP-friendly seats into this part of the state.
Now five of the most competitive races in the entire country are in San Antonio or South Texas, where Republicans hope to hold onto those new supporters.
Republicans are trying to defeat two Democratic incumbents, U.S. Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) and Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen), and flip a third Democrat-held seat, TX35, which was completely reshaped to take advantage of Trump’s South Texas gains.
‘The whole enchilada’: House Speaker says all eyes are on San Antonio’s new congressional district
That’s as they work to defend two other seats, one of which is represented by U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Edinburg), and the other is vacant since embattled Republican Tony Gonzales resigned.
“Redistricting shook the box up across Texas, but the place that has been most shaken up is San Antonio,” said Republican strategist Craig Murphy. “That makes it very hard to predict. There is no track record [in these reshaped districts].”
Under the new maps, each of the five redrawn districts would have supported Trump by 10 to 18 points in 2024.
Yet neither party considers them safely red in an election where Democrats across the country are polling about 8 points ahead on the generic ballot.
“[Republicans] may have — depending on what election night looks like in a few weeks — inadvertently created a bunch of swing districts,” as New York Times White House Correspondent Maggie Haberman sized it all up in this month.
“If you mash an R+18 district with a D+8 [year], you get kind of a watered-down purplish district. And if the mood is not good for Republicans, that’s a problem.”
After redistricting, 43% of Bexar County residents are in a new congressional district
Here are the five Texas congressional races that could determine the U.S. House majority in the 2026 midterm election.
Texas’ 15th Congressional District
How it voted in 2024: Trump +17.9%
Republicans are on playing defense in this district, where U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz’s (R-Edinburg) district is seeking a second term.
It’s the reddest of the South Texas seats being targeted this year, yet the nonpartisan Cook Political Report calls the race a toss-up, in part because De La Cruz is running against a popular Tejano music singer in Democrat Bobby Pulido.
When Republicans redrew the districts, De La Cruz said she wound up with 80% new territory, which means she has work to do introducing herself, even as an incumbent.
De La Cruz lost some of the area west of San Antonio that was used to create the new GOP-friendly 35th Congressional District, where she has helped elevate her brother as the GOP nominee.
2026 candidates for Texas’ 15th Congressional District
Texas’ 23rd Congressional District
How it voted in 2024: Trump +14.8%
This perennial target was effectively taken off the map when Republicans made it redder after the 2020 Census.
Yet Democrats once again see an opportunity, in part due to GOP turmoil.
Republican Tony Gonzales resigned in April after admitting to an affair with a staffer.
Now Republicans are embracing Brandon Herrera, a social media star with a penchant for controversy, who had pushed Gonzales to a primary runoff before the resignation.
Herrera automatically became the Republican nominee when Gonzales dropped out, and faces Democrat Katy Padilla Stout, a child welfare attorney and first-time candidate.
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott could have called a special election to fill the seat before November, but risked losing in a year when Democrats have pulled off shocking special election upsets.
The San Antonio-to-El Paso district remains deeply red, but national Democrats reserved ads here for the fall anyway, hoping to capitalize on a favorable environment.
2026 candidates for Texas’ 23rd Congressional District
Texas’ 28th Congressional District
How it voted in 2024: Trump+ 10.4%
The GOP has had its eye on U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) since Trump started making gains here, but a well-funded opponent fell flat in 2022.
Now Republicans have a reshaped district to help their candidate, and a top recruit in Webb County Judge Tano Tijenira.
But Trump took some of the wind out of their sails when he pardoned Cuellar from charges of bribery, money laundering and conspiracy. The president reportedly hoped the moderate Democrat would switch parties, which didn’t wind up happening.
New maps could make San Antonio’s congressional delegation more red than blue
Cuellar’s district used to stretch all the way up to San Antonio, but Republicans cut that portion off to give their party a better shot. Cuellar says he thinks this map is actually better for him, because it expands the district into his home base.
2026 candidates for Texas’ 28th Congressional District
Texas’ 34th Congressional District
How it voted in 2024: Trump+ 10.1%
Democrats are trying to defend U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) in one of the toughest districts in the country, considered a toss-up by Cook Political Report.
Of the five targeted Texas races, this district one is considered the most purple, based on its 2024 performance.
Gonzalez drew a tough opponent in Republican Eric Flores, who is getting help from Trump and national Republicans who opened a campaign office to help him.
They’re locked in a four-way race with a Green Party candidate and a Libertarian Party candidate.
2026 candidates for Texas’ 34th Congressional District
Texas’ 35th Congressional District
How it voted in 2024: Trump+ 10.4%
This is an entirely new district that Republicans created for themselves when they redrew the congressional maps last year.
They broke up progressive U.S. Rep. Greg Casar’s (D-Austin) seat, which looped downtown San Antonio and Austin into a single deep-blue district. In its place, Republicans created a district that starts in San Antonio but stretches east to include more rural territory in Karnes, Wilson and Guadalupe counties.
There’s no incumbent on the ballot because Casar, who lives in Austin, moved over to run in a different district that’s closer to his home.
Instead Republicans and Democrats are both leaning on political newcomers, who aren’t well-known to voters, but have received big help from national PACs trying to influence who controls the U.S. House in 2026.
Republicans nominated Carlos De La Cruz — the brother of U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Edinburg) — and Trump helped lift him from obscurity in a tough GOP primary. Democrats nominated longtime Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia after party leaders spent big to defeat a more progressive primary opponent.
