In the latest sign of a tough election for Republicans, this month two San Antonio-area congressional races drawn to favor the GOP — Texas’ 35th and 15th Congressional Districts — were both deemed “tossups” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
The D.C.-based publication rates all 435 U.S. House districts based on their likelihood to switch hands in an election, and its data is well respected by both parties.
“[It’s] one of the prognosticators that people basically see as the gold standard,” U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said of the Cook rankings on a visit to San Antonio in August to rally with Republican nominee Texas’ 35th Congressional District, Carlos De La Cruz.
All members of Congress are up for reelection at the same time, but after years of gerrymandering, very few districts are competitive enough to draw big spending and attention from party leaders.
As of Friday, Cook rankings listed just 17 races — or fewer than 5% of all districts across the country — in the “tossup” column, meaning either party could win them.
“One of them that we are watching the closest is this one right here in South Texas,” Johnson said of TX35.
Republicans entered this midterm election with a very slim U.S. House majority, and redrew Texas’ districts with the hope of picking up seats to offset losses elsewhere.
Read more: The battle for the U.S. House runs through South Texas: A cheat sheet to the races
Texas’ 35th Congressional District on San Antonio’s Southeast Side is an entirely new district that Republicans created for themselves, and Johnson dubbed it the “whole enchilada” in the battle for control of the House.
The GOP made TX35 by chopping up U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz’s (R-Edinburg) 15th Congressional District, which moved to the “tossup” column earlier this month. It used to reach up into the San Antonio suburbs, but under new maps, its northern part now stops east of Bexar County.
This part of the state swung hard toward President Donald Trump two years ago, and the two redrawn districts would have supported him by about 10 points and 18 percentage points, respectively.
In the final months, however, Democrats are giving them a run for their money in South Texas.
Recent polls show Democrats gaining steam with Latino voters and making inroads with those frustrated by the state of the economy.
“Republicans’ path to keeping control of the House has all but evaporated,” said Cook Political Report U.S. House Editor Erin Covey in the newly released ratings. “Following this latest round of ratings changes, Democrats now are favored outright in the 218 seats they need to win control of the House.”
Another deep-red San Antonio-area seat, Texas’ 23rd Congressional District, also shifted in favor of Democrats, moving from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
That’s where Republican Tony Gonzales resigned in April after admitting to an affair with a staffer. Brandon Herrera, a social media star with a gift for stirring up controversy, now faces off against Democrat Katy Padilla Stout in the race that’s drawing national attention and spending.
Meanwhile the Cook Political Report says South Texas districts currently held by Democrats U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) and U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) are considered “lean Democrat” and “likely Democrat,” respectively.
TX35
Carlos De La Cruz, a relatively unknown Air Force veteran before Trump boosted him from obscurity with a coveted endorsement, is the brother of U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz.
Democrats nominated longtime Bexar County sheriff’s deputy Johnny Garcia, an “old-school Democrat” who has proven tough for Republicans to slap a “progressive” label on.
Both parties have spent big in the race, and sent all their star power to rally troops. Trump, Johnson, former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona) have all visited San Antonio in recent weeks to support their party’s candidates.
U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) is set to rally with Garcia this weekend. Jeffries would become the speaker if Democrats take the House.
TX15
In Monica De La Cruz’s Congressional District 15, some red strongholds were drawn out of the district to help shift the balance in favor of Republicans elsewhere.
She lost some of the area west of San Antonio that was used to create the new 35th Congressional District, where her brother is the GOP nominee.
However, she faces a Democratic challenger with significant name recognition in Tejano music singer Bobby Pulido.
De La Cruz has now deemed herself the “underdog” in a district she currently represents.
Republicans are now having to spend heavily to shore up her seat.
South Texas
The race for Texas’ 34th Congressional District between Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) and Republican challenger Eric Flores shifted from toss-up to lean Democrat on Friday.
Henry Cuellar is hoping to survive yet another attempt to pry power from his hands, as his race against Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina for Congressional District 28 moved from lean Democrat to likely Democrat.
Closest to home, the 23rd Congressional District, which once seemed like a lock for Republicans has now shifted to lean Republican.
Even as GOP leadership has embraced Herrera, Democrats see a narrow path to victory through Padilla Stout, a child welfare attorney and first-time candidate.
The party out of power in the White House typically picks up seats in a midterm election. Across these five South Texas districts, Democrats hope frustration over gas prices and the war in Iran are enough to flip some seats. They have also been looking to make gains among Latinos in minority-majority districts, hoping to claw back some of the support Trump won last election.
Andrea Drusch contributed to this report.
