A still-raging U.S. Senate primary between Republicans John Cornyn and Ken Paxton fueled big upsets all the way down-ballot in last week’s runoff elections.
Meanwhile, Democrats didn’t have a big-ticket race on the ballot and saw a return to normal among their voters, who rejected some of the potentially problematic candidates who advanced from the March primary.
Republicans’ U.S. Senate race was rocked by a last-minute Trump endorsement for Paxton, but Cornyn’s 28-point loss was still quite shocking considering that national Republicans broke spending records trying to help him over the line.
“I think the margin in that race surprised everyone, including me,” said San Antonio political strategist Kelton Morgan, who got his start working for Arizona Republican John McCain.
The result was a number of losses for moderates in GOP primaries all the way down the ballot — from Trump-backed Carlos De La Cruz‘s win over state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) in the 35th Congressional District, to a longtime incumbent knocked out by his far-right challenger in a race to serve on the state’s Railroad Commission.
Just three months ago, Democrats were in a similar position.
A divisive matchup between U.S. Senate hopefuls James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett rocked that party’s March primary and fueled many surprises and upsets in races down-ballot.
But Democrats’ Senate nomination was decided outright in March, yielding a much smaller turnout and more predictable choices in last week’s Democratic primary runoffs.
“Democrats had many low-information voters turn out in the first round,” said San Antonio Democratic strategist Bert Santibañez. “Whereas, the Democrats who showed up for a runoff without there being a top-of-ticket highlight, they’re going to be more queued-up on the candidates, so you’re going to see a lot more informed decisions.”
On Tuesday, Democrats on the West Side, for example, overwhelmingly chose labor-endorsed Adrian Reyna over a former Bexar County Constable with a long history of scandal in reliably blue Texas House District 125.
Meanwhile the roughly $1 million that Republicans supposedly spent boosting controversial housing activist Maureen Galindo as Democrats’ nominee for the highly contested 35th Congressional District seemed to fall flat — with establishment pick Johnny Garcia winning by 28 points.
Now that the primary runoffs are behind us, Republicans and Democrats have their candidates for November locked in.
For some of Tuesday’s races, like Texas House District 125 and Bexar County’s District Attorney race, the primary was likely the main event.
Meanwhile, some of the most highly targeted races in the state and nation are right in our backyard — and just beginning to heat up.
Last week’s results offer some early indications of what that November landscape might look like, and set the scene for an election where Paxton and Talarico’s U.S. Senate race will be the main driver of attention in Texas.
Here are the top takeaways the San Antonio Report had from the primary runoff elections.
1. Jaw-dropping margin, shaky enthusiasm in GOP Senate race
After last week, Republicans are in agreement that Trump is a king-maker when it comes to GOP primaries — Paxton sailed to victory while Cornyn joined the list of other Trump critics defeated in Kentucky, Louisiana, Indiana and all across Texas in Tuesday’s runoffs.
But what they’re less sure about after Tuesday’s night’s 28-point spread is how exactly Trump’s endorsement influenced voters’ behavior.
Republican turnout in the runoff dropped by about a third from the March primary — still higher than usual, but an enormous amount of money was spent by Cornyn allies trying to find and turn out his likely supporters.
It’s unclear whether Trump’s support for Paxton changed voters’ minds, drove out more Paxton supporters, or, as Morgan believes, caused Cornyn supporters to give up on his chances and stay home.
“Were there a ginormous number of people who were pro-Cornyn, and saw that Trump endorsed Paxton, and switched their votes? I don’t think it’s that,” Morgan said. “It’s more likely to me that you had Republicans who saw the Trump endorsement and said, ‘OK, it’s over for Cornyn.'”
2. Cornyn’s loss also shaped lower races
That dynamic was tough for other Republicans on the ballot to overcome, even in races where Trump didn’t get involved.
For example, longtime Railroad Commissioner Jim Wright lost by roughly half a percentage point to conservative firebrand Bo French — despite Trump’s absence from the race and Gov. Greg Abbott’s best efforts to help Wright.
Meanwhile, U.S. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Dripping Springs) said his polling showed he’d basically closed the gap in the Attorney General runoff headed into early voting.
Roy wound up coming back significantly from his second-place finish in the March primary — but still lost to state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston) by five percentage points.
Headed into November, some Republicans say they need candidates who inspire their party’s voters for an election where Trump won’t be on the ballot.
“There’s no way around it. The MAGA movement is still very powerful,” said former Bexar County Republican Party Vice Chair Kyle Sinclair. “President Trump is still the face and head of the Republican Party.”
Others say Paxton, who brings much baggage from his past legal troubles and highly public affair, will only exacerbate an enthusiasm gap that’s currently working in Democrats’ favor.
“When all is said and done, it’s about who is the most energized. Right now that’s Democrats,” Morgan said. “There are a couple of political lifetimes between now and then … but Texas has been the football that we get up against Charlie Brown for 30 years. This looks like the best opportunity Democrats have had in a long time to return to competitiveness in statewide races, [because of] a combination of a really strong Democratic candidate, and a really terrible Republican candidate.”
3. A referendum on progressive justice reforms in DA race?
Tuesday’s results in Democrats’ District Attorney runoff mark a shift for a county that progressive groups targeted with $1 million to elect Democrat Joe Gonzales in 2018 — and made it one of Texas’ most closely watched experiments in progressive prosecution.
With Gonzales retiring this year, Democrats were choosing between former Fourth Court of Appeals Justice Luz Elena Chapa and longtime prosecutor Jane Davis.
Both are progressive Democrats who generally support justice reforms, but Chapa’s internal polling indicated early that Democrats were deeply unhappy with Gonzales and the state of the DA’s office, opening up a lane for an outsider in a field of seasoned prosecutors.
Her campaign consistently attacked a dysfunctional DA’s office and an opponent that helped lead it. Chapa also won support from the police union that progressives typically don’t trust — in a county that’s only grown bluer since Gonzales was first elected.
“It’s an interesting time with narratives on police,” said Brielle Insler, a progressive political strategist who wasn’t involved in the DA’s race. “What I heard from Chapa [on the trail] is that she’s had her own experiences and distrusts with police in her life, but as a DA, you have to work with the police.”
Personal adversity, compassion drive Luz Elena Chapa in tough District Attorney race
As for the justice reform movement, Morgan, who consulted on Chapa’s campaign, stressed that both candidates expressed levels of commitment to continuing such policies.
That led to a race that was more about experience and an unpopular incumbent — while progressive groups that enjoyed unprecedented access to the DA’s office under Gonzales went dark this time around.
“It might be the end of a Wren Collective- George Soros-era, but it’s not the end of criminal justice reform,” Morgan said.
Chapa will now face Republican Ashley Foster in November — in a county where Republicans are so down and out, they’ve nearly gone extinct.
4. Experience took a back seat
Despite serious questions about her qualifications — Chapa has never been a prosecutor and it took her three tries to pass the bar exam — she finished first in the primary and the runoff.
Those results come as primary voters across the state seemed unusually willing to look past traditional qualifications for major justice-related roles this year, instead favoring candidates who appeared to align with their broader political values.
Strategists credited Chapa’s compelling personal story, including childhood adversity and an early brush with law enforcement, that led Democrats to choose her over a field of seasoned prosecutors.
Meanwhile in the Attorney General race, Republicans gravitated toward Middleton — a state lawmaker known more for his culture wars than his courtroom experience.
“Of all the jobs where you need very specific experience, in my view, Attorney General is probably the most,” Roy said in an interview before last week’s runoff. “I think it matters that you’ve practiced [law] in a meaningful way, and my opponent has not.”
Still Republicans chose Middleton over three other candidates with impressive legal resumes in the primary, then again in the runoff.
They also chose a Paxton ally who has never practiced criminal law in Texas for a seat on the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals in Tuesday’s runoff election.
5. A changing face of the Republican Party
In a changing Texas GOP, Bexar County has long produced some of last remaining moderates — including U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), former U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) and state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio), to name a few.
After big losses in the primary, however, one of the state’s largest reliable blue urban centers will also be swapping out its moderate Republicans for new faces from the conservative wing.
Gonzales was one of the only survivors of the GOP’s moderate purge last election cycle, with big money spent to protect him in the once-swingy Texas’ 23rd Congressional District.
This year he ended his reelection bid after finishing second in the March primary, making conservative firebrand Brandon Herrera the official GOP nominee for a district that Democrats plan to target.
Cornyn and Lujan both finished first in their primaries, but failed to sell voters with their electability arguments in the second round.
The most shocking results were in Texas’ 35th Congressional District, where Lujan’s home court advantage did little to help him against retired Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz.
As expected, the largest share of the votes came from Bexar County, where Lujan flipped a Texas House district entirely within TX35’s boundaries.
But President Donald Trump and House GOP leaders swooped in to endorse De La Cruz, whose sister U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Edinburg) currently represents the district’s more rural parts.
In the runoff, De La Cruz not only won the district’s three red counties — Karnes, Wilson and Guadalupe — but he also nearly tied Lujan in Bexar County.
Lujan said afterward that Trump’s endorsement was too much to overcome with primary voters, but he worried that Republicans now face a tough road ahead.
Not only did they choose a conservative for a district Democrats are targeting, but in the March primary, they also picked a conservative school voucher architect over the moderate successor Lujan had lined up to run for his swingy state House seat.
“My plan just did not work,” Lujan said of those two races. ” … I really wanted to represent us [in TX35] because it’s going to be a tough seat.”
Little is known about how De La Cruz scored endorsements from high-profile leaders in D.C. — after Lujan said the White House had agreed to stay out of the race.
Some Republicans say Tuesday’s results are evidence Lujan wasn’t as popular as advertised, and that the party might be better off in November with a newcomer who has less baggage.
Despite that newcomer status, De La Cruz got big financial help from an AI-focused PAC, collected checks from a who’s who of GOP leaders in D.C., and even landed a fundraiser with Trump’s Health and Human Services secretary, RFK. Jr.
Democrats, for what it’s worth, see him as the weaker candidate to face in November.
“De La Cruz lost Bexar County to Lujan,” said Phil Gardner, a strategist with the Blue Dog-aligned PAC helping Democrat Johnny Garcia in this race. “I’m sure Johnny will be going after moderate voters who supported Lujan and Cornyn in the past, but aren’t interested in De La Cruz and Paxton’s Republican Party.”
6. A last-minute panic for one of Democrats’ top targets
One of the most surprising twists of the primary season was an overnight spotlight on longtime housing activist Maureen Galindo, whose shoestring TX35 campaign wound up drawing roughly $1 million from a Republican group trying to propel a weaker candidate through the primary — and even more than that from Democratic groups trying to shut her down.
In the end, Galindo lost by about 28 points, and strategists are split on what that spending actually achieved.
Galindo raised almost no money on her own, and took just 2.5% support in a City Council race less than a year before her congressional bid.
But it was hard to gauge whether her first-place finish in the Democratic primary was a credit to her outspoken progressive views — or a fluke in a redrawn district rocked by little-known candidates and nontraditional primary voters.
In the runoff, Gardner said Galindo won absentee ballots, came somewhat closer in early votes than than the final results, and then was trounced by Garcia’s 40-point margin on election day ballots.
While he believes that’s evidence the outside money was moving the race, some progressives say Galindo drove her own destiny with an approach that veered over from anti-establishment into antisemitism.
She’s an activist long focused on housing affordability, but in the congressional race became an outspoken critic of Israel and the war in Iran, and near the end called for turning an ICE detention into a “prison for American Zionists.”
“There’s a lot of talk about outside money coming in from dark money PACs — [but] I don’t necessarily think that’s what fueled her,” said Insler, the progressive strategist, who pointed to Galindo’s outspoken opposition to the Iran war and immigration detentions.
“We all have a right to be angry about some of the things that are happening at the will of our government,” Insler said. “But I think she moved beyond [that to a] place where somebody that may agree with a lot of the same things, … they get lost when you start bringing a whole religious or cultural group with you.”
Democrats have a tough hill to climb in a district that Trump would have won by more than 10 percentage points. But Gardner said Tuesday’s results underscore why it was so important to get a moderate through the primary.
Democrats have to win back a large number of reliable voters — predominantly Hispanic and in South Texas — who either sat out the 2024 election or switched over to vote for Trump.
“Of the three Bexar County commissioner precincts partially in TX-35, Johnny did best in heavily Hispanic Precinct 1 on the South Side, clearing 80% of the vote in some neighborhoods. He also won rural, Hispanic-majority Karnes County by more than 50 points,” Gardner said. “As Democrats in Texas and around the country work to win back Hispanic voters they lost in 2024, these runoff results are further evidence Hispanic voters want to support Blue Dogs like Johnny.”
7. A labor experiment for Democrats
After three decades of losing statewide elections in Texas, labor leaders were on a mission to put some different faces on the Democratic ticket this year.
Those efforts were unsuccessful in the Land Commissioner race, where United Steelworkers leader Jose Loya lost to Bay City Councilman Benjamin Flores in the March primary.
And on Tuesday, another United Steelworkers candidate, Marcos Isaias Vélez, lost to state Rep. Vikki Goodwin (D-Austin), in Democrats’ runoff for the Lieutenant Governor race.
Despite those loses, labor groups had something to celebrate last week in the race to replace state Rep. Ray Lopez (D-San Antonio).
SAISD union leader Adrian Reyna‘s victory in the House District 125 primary means the heavily blue district is likely to send the rare public school teacher — and rare rank-and-file union member — to the Texas Legislature.
According to the AFL-CIO, which supported Reyna, the Texas Senate just added its first ever union member this year when Democrat Taylor Rehmet won an unlikely special election near Fort Worth.
The Texas House currently has just two rank-and-file union members, state Rep. Lauren Ashley Simmons (D-Houston) and state Rep. Mihaela Plesa (D-Dallas), who previously worked for Lopez.
More election results
- U.S. Sen. John Cornyn loses to Ken Paxton in brutal night for GOP moderates
- “My voice is not going to go anywhere”: Chip Roy falls to Mayes Middleton in tough AG race
- Middleton will face Democrat Nathan Johnson, a state senator from Dallas who notched his party’s nomination for Attorney General in Tuesday’s runoff
- Democrats chose state Rep. Vikki Goodwin (D-Austin) to take on Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick this November
- Railroad Commissioner Jim Wright lost his GOP primary runoff to controversial former Tarrant County GOP Chair Bo French
- In the GOP’s runoff to replace Judge Bert Richardson on the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, Republicans longtime Paxton staffer Thomas Smith
- Former Fourth Court of Appeals Justice Luz Elena Chapa won a razor-thin Bexar County DA Democratic runoff
- Texas Republicans nominated first-time candidate Marcus Cardenas to take on state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio) this year. The Southside native who owns a concrete business and has quickly become a favorite of the governor.
- It’s Johnny Garcia vs. Carlos De La Cruz in San Antonio’s highly contested TX35
- Labor groups cheer Adrian Reyna’s victory in HD125, where he defeated disgraced former constable Michelle Barrientes Vela
- Bexar County voters tossed another District Clerk, this time swapping in Christine ‘Chris’ Castillo.
- Democratic Judge Cesar Garcia hung on in Bexar County Court-at-Law No. 10
- View the full results from Tuesday night here
