Early voting in the midterm election is nearly upon us, and it has the potential to usher in a sea change in Texas politics, though not necessarily the elusive “blue wave” that Democrats in our very Republican state have long hoped for.
No, I don’t suspect the state’s electorate has turned purple, but there are a few more blueberries in the tomato soup these days — to borrow a line from former Gov. Rick Perry.
Texas is still decidedly Republican: The latest Quinnipiac poll has Gov. Greg Abbott up by seven points on his challenger Beto O’Rourke, the GOP-controlled state Legislature drew new congressional maps two years ago to further entrench the party’s dominance, and the party appears to be gaining ground in once solidly blue counties along the border.
But what status-quo GOP lawmakers have to contend with in November is a charismatic Democratic nominee for governor (who has shown he can make things interesting even in deep-red Texas), single-issue voters energized by the sudden loss of abortion rights and — perhaps most critically — a series of flubs Abbott has made in recent years, the failure of the state’s power grid and Operation Lone Star to name a few.
Oh, and O’Rourke seems to be heavily courting young (perhaps first-time) voters by habitually popping up at concerts. A few weeks, ago O’Rourke took in pop star Harry Styles’ Austin show and earned what sounded like an endorsement from the British singer, though many of his adoring fans probably aren’t of voting age yet.
A former musician himself, O’Rourke handed country singer Kacey Musgraves a beer onstage at the Austin City Limits Music Festival, a not-so-subtle signal to the Texas artist’s audience to get out and vote. I witnessed a few displays of support for Beto myself when I attended the festival last weekend, and more than a few obscenities directed at the current governor.
Unlike past gubernatorial candidates, O’Rourke has been competitive on the fundraising front. Not a surprising development for a candidate who has amassed a national following after unsuccessful bids for the U.S. Senate in 2018 and the White House in 2020. Both candidates had $16 million cash on hand as of the latest filing date on Oct. 11, although Abbott’s campaign has spent $21 million more than O’Rourke’s.
But beyond his glitzy cameos and impressive fundraising efforts, the El Paso native is among the leaders of a voter registration drive sweeping across the state. Texas has registered more than 300,000 new voters since the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade in June and rendered abortion illegal via trigger laws in several states, Texas included.
An analysis by TargetSmart projects that more than 437,000 residents have registered to vote in the state since the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision that overturned Roe. Those new registrants skew young and Democrat, per the firm’s analysis. Its modeled participation shows Democrats with a 10-point advantage in new registrants over the GOP. Compare that to before the ruling, when Republicans had 5% more registrants.
Bexar County, meanwhile, has gained more than 36,000 registered voters since the March primary — and the county’s elections office is still counting new registrant cards it received prior to the Oct. 11 deadline, said Jacque Callanen, the county’s elections administrator. Bexar County had more than 1,230,000 registered voters as of Monday, Callanen said, up from 1,194,000 in the March primary.
It’s almost been 30 years since a Democrat won a statewide seat in Texas.
The state’s changing demographics — Latinos this year became the largest demographic group, surpassing non-Hispanic white Texans in number for the first time — have portended a difference at the ballot box for a long time. And when I say a long time, I mean once-pigmented heads of hair have turned fully gray since pundits started predicting a Democratic overhaul of Texas politics.
What people seem to forget is that outside of the urban centers, this vast state remains fiercely loyal to the Republican Party. It’s almost ingrained in the DNA, and it’s eminently present in different areas of life — from church (yes, church) to social media.
But there are times in politics when a changing electoral mood can rumble below the surface and ultimately turn the tide. For Democrats in November, they’d better hope it’s strong enough to make a splash.
Early voting starts Monday, Oct. 24, and continues through Nov. 4. Election Day is Nov. 8.
And now, a bittersweet programming note: This is my last column for the San Antonio Report, as I’ll be taking a new job opportunity. I will miss the creative — and often therapeutic — space this publication has afforded me. I thank you for reading and being part of the conversation. Go vote!
