On the same ballot as the much-anticipated presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris (D) and former President Donald Trump (R), voters in Bexar County are weighing in on a host of downballot races in this Nov. 5 election.
The U.S. Senate race between Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Colin Allred is breaking records for money spent, and a good year for either party could bring other contests along with it.
Democrats have their sights set on flipping two San Antonio-area state House races they say could play a major role in stopping Gov. Greg Abbott’s school voucher plan.
Republicans, meanwhile, are trying to protect some of their last-remaining elected offices in Bexar County, including state House Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) and Bexar County Commissioner Grant Moody (Pct. 3), who are considered some of the party’s rising stars.
The GOP is on offense in a trio of races for seats on the 4th Court of Appeals, where a flood of last-minute campaign spending has put a spotlight on some lower-profile races.
Here are the top races the reporters and editors of the San Antonio Report will be watching on Nov. 5.
1. U.S. Senate: Keeping the heat on Cruz
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz started his career focused squarely on Republicans — riding the conservative wave to an upset victory in his 2012 U.S. Senate race, then nearly capturing his party’s nomination for president four years later.
But after Democrat Beto O’Rourke shocked the political world by holding Cruz to a 2.6% margin in 2018, the Republican has sought to soften his partisan warrior image headed into his second reelection race.
Democrats’ nominee, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), is focused on making sure Texans don’t forget the old Cruz, who shut down the federal government in an effort to defund Obamacare, had repeatedly urged the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade throughout his career, and in 2020, led an effort to stop the election results from being certified for President Joe Biden.
Allred, a former NFL linebacker, worked as a civil rights attorney before winning a Dallas-area Congressional seat that had long belonged to Republicans in 2018.
While his U.S. Senate campaign hasn’t generated the type of cult following O’Rourke’s did, Allred’s raised plenty of money to get his message across and embraced more traditional campaign tactics than his predecessor.
In the final stretch, national Democrats have put resources in to help one of their only pickup opportunities on the Senate map, making Texas the most expensive Senate race in the country.
Meanwhile Cruz, who’s been spending big in the final months, has complained that national Republicans aren’t coming to his defense because of his disagreements with GOP Senate Leader Mitch McConnell.
2. Texas’ 28th Congressional District: Cuellar battles legal woes
U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) survived the race of his life two years ago — narrowly fending off a progressive primary challenger, then weathering millions of dollars in attacks from a well-qualified Republican.
Now Cuellar is looking like a much riper target, after draining his campaign account on lawyers’ fees as he and his wife prepare to stand trial next year on charges of bribery, unlawful foreign influence and money laundering.
But national Republicans’ money has not flowed to his race this year — as GOP operatives wait for the legal system to finish Cuellar off.
Cuellar’s 13-percentage point victory in 2022 was compelling enough that the national GOP closed up shop in his district earlier this year.
Republican Jay Furman is a retired U.S. Navy Commander who recently moved to the San Antonio area with the intention of running for office.
He excited conservatives with his opposition to vaccine mandates for the military during Covid, but spent the primary railing against GOP leaders in D.C.
In turn, national Republicans are skipping an expensive fight this year, suggesting Cuellar’s legal woes will eventually take the incumbent out for them.
3. Texas House District 118: An old Democratic stronghold
Both Democrats and Republicans agree this South Texas seat will be one of the most hard-fought races of the fall — a rarity after redistricting has left hardly any truly competitive districts.
Though once a Democratic stronghold, Lujan, a former San Antonio firefighter, flipped House District 118 for Republicans in a 2021 special election, then fended off Democrat Frank Ramirez the following November with 52% of the vote.
Lujan’s deep ties to the district and personal charm made him a top recruit for GOP leaders who’ve put big money behind his races, but this year’s campaign has been more challenging for a variety of reasons.
Lujan now has a legislative record to defend that includes some tough votes, including siding with Abbott on a plan to create school vouchers. In an October debate he sought to soften his image on that issue, as well as on abortion, which became a bigger focus after he mangled his position in a Texas Public Radio interview.
Lujan’s opponent, progressive political organizer Kristian Carranza, has been raising the money that was sorely missing from her predecessor’s race. While other Texas Democrats have been massively outspent in tough state House races, her campaign was buoyed by more than $1 million from a national PAC aligned with gun safety activist David Hogg.
Democratic leaders have been hammering the idea that their party may not be able to flip the House, but they can flip enough seats to stop school vouchers from passing next session. Republicans, meanwhile, have been attacking Carranza for changing her name last year ahead of the race.
President Joe Biden would have carried the redrawn district by roughly 2.7 percentage points.
4. Texas House District 121: A shakeup in the primary
This Northside district wouldn’t be on the radar if not for an upset in the GOP primary, where state House Rep. Steve Allison (R-Alamo Heights) fell victim to Abbott’s campaign to rid the party of members who oppose school vouchers.
Allison’s broad appeal helped him easily defeat past challengers, even as Democrats made inroads with college-educated suburbanites elsewhere in the state.
Without him, Democrats will once again make a play for the seat, this time with political newcomer Laurel Jordan Swift, who joined the race a week before the filing deadline.
The orthopedic device saleswoman has been trying to court support from both parties, and even picked up endorsements from Allison, the ousted-Republican, and former GOP state Sen. Jeff Wentworth.
Republican Marc LaHood, an attorney, caught the attention of conservatives with his energetic campaign against District Attorney Joe Gonzales (D) in 2022, which focused on making nuisance crime a higher priority.
Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton both helped LaHood in the primary. Now he’s also getting support from West Texas oil billionaires known for the Christian Nationalist views.
If elected, LaHood has vowed to help push the House to the right and install a new conservative House Speaker.
Trump would have carried the redrawn district by 2.3 percentage points.
5. Bexar County Commissioner Precinct 3: The GOP’s lone seat
Republicans have long had exactly one stronghold in Bexar County government, Precinct 3, which has steadily been moving away from their party in statewide and presidential elections.
Conservatives chose Commissioner Grant Moody (Pct. 3), a Marine fighter pilot, for the seat in 2022, and he’s since been embraced by the party’s old guard too, thanks in part to his loaded corporate resume, including stints at USAA and Valero.
Still, Moody faced a well-funded challenge from his right this year, and continues to walk a fine line between satisfying his party’s activists and navigating a court of Democrats.
He faces a rematch against Susan Korbel, who owns her own public opinion firm and previously served on the Alamo Colleges District’s board of directors. Korbel has been closely involved with local Democratic politics in recent years, in particular, efforts to make the party more competitive on the Northside.
Both parties agree the fast-growing precinct has seen a major shift toward Democrats when it comes to statewide and presidential contests, but it’s unclear how much that impacts downballot races.
Abbott carried it by just over 2 percentage points in his 2022 race against Democrat Beto O’Rourke, while Moody took 53.6% of the vote to Korbel’s 46.4% in their race that same year.
6. The Fourth Court of Appeals: GOP takes aim at a blue court
The San Antonio-based Fourth Court of Appeals features some of the region’s best political matchups.
It’s responsible for hearing appeals cases from 32 counties across South Texas and the Hill Country — a political subdivision that has supported both Republicans and Democrats in recent years.
Democrats held six of the seats before Judge Patricia Alvarez (D-Place 3) retired in the middle of her term, and Republicans are taking aim at three of them.
A conservative group helping Republican judicial candidates across the state dumped $1.5 million into these races in the final stretch, according to a local GOP operative.
Place 3: Abbott appointed Lori Massey Brissette (R) to Alvarez’s seat in July, but because the change happened so late, Brissette had already signed up to run for Place 4 this November.
The now open race features Democrat Cynthia Marie Chapa, who is currently a judge in the 288th Civil District Court, against Republican Todd McCray, a private attorney who has worked as a special prosecutor in Bexar County.
Place 4: Incumbent Democrat Luz Elena Chapa (D-Place 4), who has served on the court since 2013, faces a challenge from Brissette, who previously served as a judge in the 288th District Court.
Place 5: Liza Rodriguez (D-Place 5), who was first elected in 2018, faces a challenge from Republican Adrian Spears, who has a background in municipal law.
7. State Board of Education: A surprise opening
The 15-member State Board of Education is home to some of the state’s hottest political battles: Setting curriculum and choosing textbooks for Texas public schools.
This year seven seats are up for reelection, including an open race in SBOE District 1, which stretches from West San Antonio to El Paso.
Incumbent Democrat Melissa Ortega made a last-minute decision not to seek reelection, setting off a scramble for her party to find a replacement.
They landed on Gustavo Reveles, a former journalist who is now the communications director for Canutillo Independent School District. He’s running against Republican Michael Travis Stevens, a high school teacher who has a doctorate in education and curriculum.
Stevens ran for the seat in 2022, and took 44% to Ortega’s 56%.
Bonus: San Antonio charter amendments
The San Antonio City Council is asking voters to weigh in on a list of proposed City Charter amendments on the Nov. 5 ballot.
Highlights include Proposition E, which would increase City Council salaries from $45,700 per year to $70,200 per year, and Proposition F, which would institute longer terms for members of the City Council and mayor.
Proposition C would undo limits on the salary and tenure of the city manager that voters approved in 2018. It has the support of business groups, and is opposed by the progressive leaders and the formidable firefighter’ union.
Correction: An earlier version of this story included an outdated title for State Board of Education candidate Gustavo Reveles. He works at Canutillo ISD.
