Local businesses need a strong holiday season to finish out the year after a scorching summer hurt sales and business activity, but many are struggling to fill out their seasonal workforce, even as nationwide holiday hiring estimates are slightly lower than last year, according to analysts.
“With a few exceptions, attendance through October is down compared to last year,” said Bill Brendel, president and CEO of the San Antonio Visitor Alliance, which counts hotels, restaurants, tour companies, museums and theme parks among its members. “They’re really hoping for a strong November and December.”
But even after raising wages over the past couple of years — Brendel estimated labor costs for many of the alliance’s members are up to 50% higher than they were pre-pandemic — “It’s still a struggle to hire. So many people seem to have left the job market.”
The local job market remains tight. October’s unemployment rate for San Antonio was 3.6%, slightly lower than the state’s rate of 3.8%, according to Workforce Solutions Alamo.
The National Retail Federation described “a whole new set of dynamics” surrounding the 2023 holiday season. After three years of strong sales despite supply chain bottlenecks and a tight labor market, it estimates a slower growth rate this year, but one consistent with pre-pandemic levels of growth.
With that slower rate of spending, retailers are expected to hire between 345,000 and 450,000 seasonal workers nationally, according to the group. Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., which analyzes hiring trends, said seasonal hiring announcements from major retailers are lower than last year.
One major exception appears to be Amazon, which announced in late September that it would hire 250,000 people for seasonal positions nationwide, 100,000 more than in 2022. It also recently announced higher wages for many of its positions. Roughly 4,500 people work for Amazon in Bexar County at various fulfillment centers and delivery stations.
A look through Indeed’s seasonal hiring posts shows local openings at Target paying $15 an hour. Macy’s, which announced it would hire 38,000 workers nationally, down from 42,000 last year, is advertising seasonal jobs in San Antonio paying between $15 and $18 an hour. UPS, which just increased wages after a union strike threat, lists warehouse positions paying $21 an hour.
Those who hold commercial drivers licenses appear to be in high demand for seasonal work as well, with pay ranges from $19 to $21 an hour. CDL training has been one of the most popular options for those choosing a path within the city’s Ready to Work workforce training program, and hiring for truck drivers remains strong.
Dawn Ann Larios, executive director for the West region of the Texas Restaurant Association, said that with retailers hiring fewer workers than last year, restaurants are hoping to pick up the slack. Most are still facing challenges hiring workers, she said, although total employment has increased by several thousand compared to last year. Roughly 109,500 people are employed in the restaurant industry in the San Antonio metro region, she said, compared with 106,400 last year.
“So that is a bright spot,” she said. As with other industries, restaurants have raised wages and sweetened benefits packages to lure workers. With benefits, restaurant workers are earning between $27 and $40 an hour across Texas, she said.
Geremy Landin, executive director of Maestro Entrepreneur Center, which is focused on small business development, said the biggest complaint he has heard is that construction companies are struggling to hire.
Every holiday season since the pandemic has seen a unique set of circumstances, wrote Jack Kleinhenz, the chief economist for the National Retail Federation. In 2020, cooped-up Americans shopped online from home, pushing sales up 9% over the year before.
By the following year, despite supply chain issues, demand resulted in a “historic” growth rate of 12.7%. Last year, consumers faced rising inflation, but also were able to draw on savings to keep the holiday spending going: In-store shopping surged, and consumers shifted their spending from goods to services as they ventured out.
This year, interest rates aren’t rising as fast, but credit card debt has risen. Job growth has slowed in some parts of the country, but Texas recently set a new record of 14.5 million people employed in the state, according to the Texas Workforce Commission.
Martin Gutierrez, director of government relations and public policy for the San Antonio Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, said given all the struggles faced by local businesses over the past three years, its members had one main message: “Whether it’s food for your Thanksgiving feast or holiday gifts, buy local.”
