A little more rain than usual this spring is helping to ease extraordinary drought conditions across South Central Texas, but experts say we’re in need of much more rain to get out of a historic drought.
After Tuesday’s stormy conditions dumped rain across San Antonio, the city is up to 12.85 inches of rainfall this year. That’s 1.59 inches higher than normal for this time of year.
San Antonio Water System officials said at a board meeting Tuesday that the extra rainfall has been good for business.
“This influx of moisture has led to meaningful improvements in local hydrologic conditions and has contributed to a notable easing of long term drought impacts across the region,” SAID Steven Siebert, SAWS’ manager of water resources.
The extra rain in the region is even helping Corpus Christi gain some extra time to deal with its water crisis. The coastal city was projected to reach a Level 1 water emergency — meaning it would have six months before water demand was greater than available supply — in September. But recent rainfall pushed that deadline back to December, according to the Texas Tribune.
Bexar County has been downgraded from exceptional drought to a mix of moderate and severe drought, Siebert added.
He cautioned that key water indicators remain low. The Edwards Aquifer is 27 feet below average. Comal Spring flows are half of what it normally is. Canyon Lake is only 58.7% full.
“The region is no longer considered to be in meteorological drought, however, it remains an hydrologic drought, as groundwater and surface water supplies have not yet fully recovered from six years of persistent drought condition,” Siebert said.
Edwards Aquifer still needs recharge
F. Paul Bertetti is the senior director of aquifer science, research and modeling for the Edwards Aquifer Authority and has closely monitored local groundwater supplies.
“Over the past six years, rainfall at the SAT location is more than 70 inches below normal. The normal or slightly better than normal amounts received this year are welcome, important, and impactful, but aren’t the type of rains that will end the drought,” Bertetti said.
The Edwards Aquifer Authority measures drought when the aquifer water levels fall below 660 feet mean sea level for 90 days or more. The aquifer has been below that threshold ever since 2022. Rainfall so far in 2026 hasn’t changed that.
The authority still has users in San Antonio at a 35% reduction in pumping to keep springs flowing and maintain aquifer health.
Bertetti said the aquifer can recharge efficiently, though, if there’s a large rainfall surplus or multiple intense storms on a region-wide scale.
“Rain events that produce significant flow in streams across the region can really help. We don’t need to make up all 70 inches of deficit — we just need a year with 11 to 14 inches of excess rain to restore water levels,” Bertetti said.
There’s a chance that increased rain persists, said Monte Oaks, a meteorologist at the Austin/San Antonio office of the National Weather Service.
He says 2026 is an El Niño year, where warm surface waters in the Pacific Ocean cause a subtropical jet stream to push moisture and rain through Mexico and into Texas.
A more recent El Niño event in 2023 did not break the drought, Oaks said, but it does raise the likelihood of rain. El Niño conditions tend to manifest later in the year and could mean more rain and cooler temperatures this fall.
