Tuesday’s primary election in Bexar County saw a wave of voters who don’t typically participate in the primary process.
Several challengers had success harnessing that energy to knock off incumbents or push them to runoffs, while a few popular local officials seemed to be swept out with the tide.
In the days since the Texas primary, both parties are trying to make sense of what it all means for their November prospects.
Here are the top takeaways from a wild election night in Bexar County.
1. Enthusiasm was up — but will it hold?
For Democrats who saw a major spike in primary participation, local Democratic political consultant Brielle Insler said there’s concern about keeping the enthusiasm going through November.
Early data indicates only about 2% of the people who didn’t have a history of voting in primaries were actually new voters — the rest were people that tend to turn out in the general election, just not usually in the primary.
“How is this going to impact the fall? Is it just going to be the same people, or are we going to actually bring more people out?” she said of the questions on Democrats’ minds.
Among the big draws in the March 3 race was a high-profile U.S. Senate primary between state Rep. James Talarico (D-Round Rock) and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas). Talarico won it outright, with 53% of the vote.
“Personally, I think that with the results of the Senate race, we’re going to have a good chunk of the people that are going to need to be motivated,” Insler said. “A lot of people really felt they connected with Jasmine [Crockett] and had their heart set on her. It’s going to be a big effort to reenergize them.”
Republicans, meanwhile, are scrambling to respond to an enthusiasm gap that could spell problems for them in November.
Going into the election, Gov. Greg Abbott’s campaign even sought to drum up Republican votes with ads warning them about how Crockett could be the next AOC or Zohran Mamdani.
Now GOP leaders are scrambling to wrap up messy primaries that didn’t produce a winner — a sign that seats they don’t usually worry about could potentially be in danger.
“What everyone is trying to figure out now is, is this going to be a regular midterm election where Republicans take it on the chin because they’re the party in power? Or is this going to be like a 1994- or 2010-level wave election that ushers in some kind of fundamental sea-change?” said San Antonio political strategist Kelton Morgan, who got his start working in GOP politics.
2. Fired-up Democrats dealt some unexpected outcomes
A surge of Democratic voters who don’t typically participate in the primary may have led to some unexpected results in down-ballot races.
For example, in the new 35th Congressional District, which national Democrats plan to spend big money targeting in 2026, San Antonio housing activist Maureen Galindo shocked some political watchers with a first-place finish in the four-way primary, over the national party’s favored candidate, Johnny Garcia.
Meanwhile in the race to replace state Rep. Ray Lopez (D-San Antonio), former Bexar County Constable Michelle Barrientes Vela — known for her family’s viral outburst during her 2022 sentencing over records tampering charges — advanced to a runoff with SAISD union leader Adrian Reyna, a political legacy who raised the most money in that race.
Political strategists chalk some of that up to voters who were enthusiastic to vote in Democrats’ U.S. Senate primary, but didn’t come with prepared choices in other races.
“It’s just kind of a toss-up, when you have like a fifth of the vote coming from non-traditional primary voters,” said San Antonio political strategist Bert Santibañez.
Among those who cast a ballot in Democrats’ U.S. Senate race in Bexar County, 11,500 of them didn’t vote in the Bexar County Judge race. From the Bexar County Judge race to the open District Attorney race, another 21,500 voters dropped off.
“That tells you that you had a lot of people who were not all that informed, who came out to vote,” said Morgan, who noted that it’s not uncommon for Democratic primary voters to favor women candidates when they don’t have other information to go on.
“You have a higher percentage of female voters in a Democratic primary than you do in a Republican primary, and than you do in a general electorate as a whole,” he said. “Generally in a Democratic primary, you expect it to be 56-58% [women voters].”
3. Democratic disappointments
At the same time, six Democratic judges were unseated by challengers, some of whom put very little effort into their campaigns.
Among those who lost were William “Cruz” Shaw, a popular former City Council member who oversaw a juvenile court, Stephanie R. Boyd in the 187th Criminal District Court, and longtime incumbent Yolanda Huff In County Court at Law No. 12 — all of the Black judges who were on the ballot.
“There’s been a lot of conversations about how we no longer have any Black judges in Bexar County,” Insler said. “And after seeing Jasmine [Crockett] lose too, I think there’s a lot of people just kind of reflecting internally.”
Others who lost were Judge Michael Mery in the 144th Criminal District Court fell to former judge Michael De Leon, Judge Rosie Speedlin Gonzalez, who is under suspension for handcuffing a defense attorney in her courtroom in 2024, and Judge Carlo Rodriguez Key lost to an earlier-career Democratic primary challenger, Audrey Martinez.
“It’s crazy,” Shaw said. “It doesn’t matter how hard you work, how much money you raise, how good of a job you do. It does not matter. Most people don’t step into a courtroom, they don’t see what we do on a daily basis, so they just vote based off name.”
4. Nirenberg pulled more raw votes than Talarico
One outcome that wasn’t random last night: The major upset former Mayor Ron Nirenberg pulled off in the Bexar County Judge primary.
Political strategists say it wasn’t a surprise, he polled ahead of incumbent Judge Peter Sakai consistently. But it was notable that Sakai didn’t have major weaknesses, or a low job approval rating.
“Ron has a lot of popularity. People still love him, and he has huge name ID,” said Insler. “He was our mayor, and I think a lot of people know a lot more about what happens at City Hall than what’s going on at the county.”
Nirenberg was one of the few known quantities down-ballot. He came into the race with high favorability ratings, according to UTSA’s tracking poll, and ran a well-funded campaign.
Despite the much higher number of votes in the Senate race, Santibañez said, that helped him pull in more raw votes across Bexar County than even state Rep. James Talarico (D-Round Rock) — the popular U.S. Senate candidate who spent big time and resources getting his message out to voters in San Antonio.
5. Talarico’s home turf
Talarico had his own big night in Bexar County, pulling almost 57% of the vote in his race against Crockett. That’s roughly four points higher than his support was statewide.
Though he lives in Round Rock, Insler chalked it up to a pseudo home court advantage. He spent time here working as a middle school teacher, made connections with local officials, and even endorsed some City Council candidates in the past.
“San Antonio was a huge battleground for Jasmine and her team, with an opportunity to maybe come out on top,” she said. “But I think Talarico just had those inroads, and this was a county that he was going to perform well in.”
6. A conservative star in the making
Another incumbent who proved popular Tuesday night was Republican state Rep. Marc LaHood (R-San Antonio), a freshman lawmaker who weathered expensive attacks from GOP outside groups, but took 74% of the vote in his primary.
While the final spending in that race has yet to be reported by the campaigns, Morgan said lots of last-minute outside money also poured in to help LaHood, who conservative groups would like to protect as a future leader.
“As much money as [was] spent against him, I think three times that was spent for him,” Morgan said. “It was not uncommon to get four pieces [of mail] from four different groups in a day that were pro-LaHood.”
7. Republicans left scrambling
After a big upset in a deep-red Fort Worth special election, Republicans were eager to end messy primaries that could grow ugly in a runoff.
In some cases they succeeded, like getting former MLB Player Mark Teixeira through his crowded primary to replace U.S. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Dripping Springs).
In other cases, they’re now asking second-place finishers to give way to the first-place candidate and spare the party another bruising eight-week campaign.
President Donald Trump put that pressure on Attorney General Ken Paxton, who so far plans to continue with his U.S. Senate bid against U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).
GOP leaders were successful in getting U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) to drop his reelection bid — after the damaged incumbent finished second to YouTube creator Brandon Herrera.
According to the Bexar County Elections Department, candidates have until March 18 to notify the state party and officially withdraw from the runoff.
If they choose to go that route, the remaining candidate automatically becomes the nominee, and the runoff election is cancelled.
8. A Congressional delegation ripped up
Between Gonzales’ withdrawal from the race, Roy’s move to the Attorney General contest and U.S. Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) and Greg Casar (D-San Antonio) being drawn out of their districts, San Antonio is on track to have just one returning member of Congress next year, at best.
U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) was renominated by his party, and faces a Republican challenger in a deep-blue redrawn district.
In races to replace some of those members, Tuesday’s primary suggested voters know little about the candidates running. That’s partially due to 43% of residents being put into a new congressional district, and also to crowded races where no candidate raised enough money to stand out from the crowd.
“San Antonio loses a lot of clout as a result of a handful of things,” said Morgan.
“We’re about to lose Tony Gonzales. We [replaced] Chip Roy with a guy who lives basically in Austin, Cuellar got drawn out,” he said. “The people who had influence in the House that were from San Antonio and had San Antonio interests at heart are no longer there.”
9. Runoffs ahead
Most strategists expect a very steep drop-off from the primary to the May 26 runoff election.
Republicans are still deciding their nominee for Attorney General and several other key races. Democrats have runoffs for Bexar County Clerk, District Clerk and District Attorney.
But parties are still choosing candidates in the new 35th Congressional District — one of the top races on the U.S. House map.
In May, however, Santibañez said that the Democratic primary electorate will probably look more like it does in traditional elections. That could mean some of these surprise finishers, like Galindo and Barrientes Vela, have a tougher road ahead.
“It’s going to be interesting in the runoff,” Santibañez said. “I think what’s going to end up happening is it retracts to kind of the normal homeostasis, turnout drops precipitously, and more of the typical crowd that you see in primaries shows up.”
More election results
- Democrat Gina Hinojosa secured the nomination to take on Gov. Greg Abbott in November. She celebrated surrounded by San Antonians near the Pearl last night.
- Former state Sen. Don Huffines shocked political watchers by winning the 4-way GOP comptroller primary.
- An Abbott-backed challenger defeated Ag Commissioner Sid Miller.
- U.S. Rep. Chip Roy’s political career could be over if he doesn’t come back to defeat Mayes Middleton, who finished first in the GOP’s AG primary, in a runoff. Democrats have a runoff in that race too.
- Republicans bucked state Rep. John Lujan’s chosen successor, instead nominating 30-year-old Jorge Borrego, a school voucher architect, for Texas’ toughest state House race.
- Texas House incumbents faced well-funded challengers, but came out on top.
- Republicans are coming after Democratic state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio) this year, but Abbott’s chosen candidate faces a primary runoff.
- Bexar County’s Democratic DA primary is headed to a runoff.
- Incumbent Bexar County Clerk Lucy Adame-Clark faces a primary runoff with Cynthia Castro, who ran ads attacking her.
- District Clerk Gloria Martinez is also headed to a runoff, but final votes could determine who she faces.
- State Rep. Liz Campos’ (D-San Antonio) sister, Anna Campos, is about to become a Justice of the Peace in Bexar County.
- U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz’s (R-Edinburg) brother, Carlos De La Cruz, is in a GOP runoff for a San Antonio-area congressional seat.
