Leave those sweaters in the attic and order that pumpkin-spiced latte on ice, San Antonio — meteorologists say we’re likely in for a warm and dry fall and winter.
That’s because La Niña — a weather phenomenon that pushes the polar jet stream north, causing southern states to see warmer and drier conditions than usual — is hanging around for the third straight year. That’s only ever happened two other times in recorded weather history, said Keith White, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.
“La Niña keeps us in a warmer and drier state than average,” White said. “Now, that doesn’t mean we won’t see any cold snaps — both the freeze of February 2021 and the snowstorm of ’85 happened while we were in a La Niña year. It just means overall conditions are typically warmer and drier.”
La Niña usually alternates with El Niño, which brings cooler, wetter conditions to the southern U.S. — conditions that typically increase the likelihood of severe flooding. Generally, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
San Antonio experienced record-setting heat this summer with historically low rainfall. May, June, July and August were each San Antonio’s hottest on record, combining to make for the region’s hottest summer on record.
In its wake, San Antonians are likely cheering the cooler mornings this week, CPS Energy’s new chief meteorologist Brian Alonzo told trustees Monday during the utility’s monthly board meeting.
Cold fronts are starting to move through Texas, Alanzo said, bringing the welcome cool mornings, but not much rain.
The National Weather Service’s White said even as other parts of the country are preparing for flooding in the wake of Hurricane Ian, Texas probably won’t see much rain from it — or anything else in the near future.
“October is usually cool and wet for our region; usually it’s the third wettest month of the year for San Antonio — so if we continue to miss out on those rains the latter two-thirds of the month, we could be looking at continued drought impacts into the new year,” White said.
Alonzo, too, forecast a hot fall and a warm winter without much rain.
However, he said, patterns may start to shift in the new year. Citing data from the Climate Prediction Center, an offshoot of NOAA, he said there are some indications that San Antonio may start transitioning to “a more neutral type of situation” with rain becoming more regular in the latter half of the winter.
Alonzo also echoed White and the National Weather Service that extreme weather events are still possible this fall and winter.
“Could we still possibly see maybe a heavy rain event? Absolutely. Could we still see maybe some cold snaps coming through? Absolutely,” he said.
During the utility’s meeting Monday, the general managers of each of CPS Energy’s power plants described how they have weatherized their respective plants to withstand zero-degree temperatures and 20-mile-per-hour winds.
“This is the first time we’ve had a plant-by-plant review,” said Mayor Ron Nirenberg, who sits on the board in his capacity as mayor and has urged the utility to be more thorough and transparent about its weatherization efforts.
“I would imagine that all of these folks can go into tremendous depth into their presentations, but this was a good, high-level overview of where we are with respect to weatherization,” he said Monday.
Since Winter Storm Uri, both CPS Energy and the San Antonio Water System have taken steps to better ensure water and electricity reliability during major weather events.
Alonzo noted he was hired by CPS Energy as part of that effort, after the utility faced criticism for using a meteorology intern rather than a professional at the time.
“As part of my job here, I’m going to make sure that we are, and everybody here at CPS Energy is, going to be aware when those big weather events are going to be coming in and going to be affecting our customers,” Alonzo said.
CPS Energy is a financial supporter of the San Antonio Report. For a full list of business members, click here.
