Bexar County’s turnout has already surpassed the 2022 primary — before a single election day vote

Headed into the March 3 primary, Bexar County voter turnout is up, Democrats are vastly outvoting Republicans, and people who’ve never participated in a primary are turning out to help choose their party’s nominees.

Early voting ended Friday with roughly 183,000 votes cast. 

That’s about 88% higher turnout than early voting in the last midterm election in 2022, when Republicans were voicing their displeasure with then-newly elected Joe Biden’s presidency, according to San Antonio political consultant Bert Santibañez, who typically works with Democrats.

Now Democrats are the ones fired up to oppose President Donald Trump’s White House, and their voters are eager to express that sentiment in the primary.

“It’s a venting primary,” said San Antonio political consultant Kelton Morgan, who typically works for Republican candidates. “[It’s] the first real opportunity Democrats have had to exercise their anger and frustration since the 2024 election.”

Elections Administrator Michele Carew said Monday that early, in-person voting turnout in Bexar County has already surpassed the county’s total turnout in the 2022 midterm. 

Roughly 183,000 in-person ballots have been cast this year, she said, compared to 171,000 total ballots cast in 2022, and 61,000 in 2018.

She expects another 100,000 to 125,000 votes to be cast on election day, and reminded voters to review their sample ballot ahead of time to make the process move faster. 

Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Tuesday, March 3 — the last opportunity to vote in the primary.

Long lines mean that early results could once again be slow to post after the polls close on Tuesday, Carew said. 

“We had people waiting in line up to 9 p.m. to cast their ballot on Friday,” she said. “ … I can’t release [the early returns] until every voter has cast their ballot.”

Who is voting in the 2026 midterm?

So far both parties are out-voting their 2022 performance in Bexar County, according to Santibañez.

But the number of Democratic primary ballots requested are up 145% from 2022 in Bexar County after early voting, he said, while Republican ballots requested were up 26%.

To the strategists who analyze voting patterns in Bexar County, one of the most striking differences in this year’s turnout is the high number of voters who have a history of voting in general elections, but who have never before participated in a primary.

San Antonio political strategist Mohammad Rasool said that description applies to roughly a fifth of the voters who’ve cast ballots so far, “a very significant jump” that could indicate a wave election is coming for Democrats.

Midterms typically bring big gains for the party out of power, so Democratic enthusiasm is to be expected — particularly as special elections across the country indicate that voters are angry about Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement tactics.

But Morgan said it’s important not to confuse a rise in people who haven’t voted in primaries with a rise in participation from people who’ve never voted at all.

“A lot of people that are general election voters who aren’t hardcore primary voters who are showing up — in the Democratic primary at least — but not a lot of new voters coming out of nowhere,” he said. “That doesn’t necessarily translate to gains in the fall general election.”

To the campaigns trying to get their messages out, Rasool said the surge in nontraditional primary voters could mean a large number of the people who are showing up to vote haven’t been contacted by candidates in the races they’re voting in.

“It’s kind of a problem, because nobody had the funds to reach out to general [election] voters. The number is just too high,” he said. “So there’s a good portion of the electorate that probably has not been targeted by ads or by direct canvassing or by direct mail.”

After Texas’ mid-cycle redistricting effort, roughly 43% of Bexar County residents live in a different congressional district than the last election.

Now the combination of a late start to the primary, reshuffled districts and newcomer candidates has both parties’ national PACs swooping in at the last minute to try to do the advertising candidates couldn’t afford on their own.

“There is kind of a wild card of about 20% of voters that are going to turn up, and, I would assume, they’re not very informed on who they’re going to vote for because they haven’t really been contacted by campaigns,” Rasool said. “I’m sure a lot of campaigns are sweating bullets right now.”

Early voting data has also suggested this year’s Democratic voters might be skewing younger than in past elections, Santibañez said, potentially in response to the party’s two young U.S. Senate candidates, James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett.

“What’s been interesting compared to previous Democratic primaries is that people over the age of 50 are counting for about 61% of the vote,” said Santibañez.“ Typically, it’s pretty lopsided, with the 50-plus group usually making up around 70%. But millennials, interestingly enough, are coming out in stronger numbers.”