Five days into early voting for the March 3 primary, Bexar County voter turnout is higher than expected, Democrats are vastly outvoting Republicans and people who’ve never participated in a primary are turning out to help choose their party’s nominees.
The last midterm election was in 2022, where Republicans voiced their displeasure with then-newly elected Joe Biden’s presidency.
Now Democrats are the ones fired up to oppose President Donald Trump’s White House, and voter participation in Bexar County is up 48% from this point in 2022, according to the Elections Department. Of those, Democrats are out-voting Republicans more than two-to-one.
“Voters are showing up, and they are not slowing down,” Elections Administrator Michele Carew said in a statement Monday. “We’re consistently seeing nearly double the daily turnout compared to the previous midterm election.”
Early voting runs through Friday, and polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on the day of the March 3 election.
To the strategists who analyze voting patterns in Bexar County, one striking difference in this year’s turnout is the high number of voters who have a history of voting in general elections, but who have never before participated in a primary.
San Antonio political strategist Mohammad Rasool said that description applies to roughly 19% of the voters who’ve cast ballots so far, “a very significant jump” that could indicate a wave election is coming for Democrats.
Midterms typically bring big gains for the party out of power, so Democratic enthusiasm is to be expected — particularly as special elections across the country indicate that voters are angry about Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement tactics.
But to the campaigns trying to reach primary voters, that could mean a large number of the people who are showing up to vote haven’t been contacted by candidates in the races they’re voting in.
“It’s kind of a problem, because nobody had the funds to reach out to general [election] voters. The number is just too high. So there’s a good portion of the electorate that probably has not been targeted by ads or by direct canvassing or by direct mail,” Rasool said.
After Texas’ mid-cycle redistricting effort, roughly 43% of Bexar County voters are voting in a new congressional district this year.
Now the combination of a late start to the primary, reshuffled districts and newcomer candidates has both parties’ national PACs swooping in at the last minute to try to do the advertising candidates couldn’t afford on their own.
“There is kind of a wild card of about 20% of voters that are going to turn up, and, I would assume, they’re not very informed on who they’re going to vote for because they haven’t really been contacted by campaigns,” Rasool said. “I’m sure a lot of campaigns are sweating bullets right now.”
