According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, Bexar County is no longer in severe drought.
However, San Antonio experts say the monitor, put together by professional meteorologists, climatologists and agriculturists, doesn’t take into account several hyperlocal factors — and argue we are definitely still in a severe drought.
San Antonio Water System staff told its board of trustees last week that San Antonio’s main source of drinking water, the Edwards Aquifer, is still severely stressed due to the blistering heat that the city has endured for the past few years.
The ongoing drought is tracking closely to San Antonio’s historic drought of record in the 1950s, staff said — a point that shocked trustees. Lasting from 1950 to 1957, Central Texas experienced a severe drought characterized by exceptionally low rainfall, extreme heat and significant water shortages.
That is why the municipally owned water utility hasn’t lifted its new Stage 3 watering restrictions that went into effect in July, staff added, despite the drought monitor saying Bexar County has been out of severe drought since mid-September.
The U.S. Drought Monitor does still have Bexar County as listed under moderate drought. The monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Comparing the monitor year over year, San Antonio is much better situated now than it was last October, said Orlando Bermudez, a meteorologist from the National Weather Service stationed in New Braunfels.
“Last year we were worse — we were in a D4 drought which is exceptional drought,” he said. “A year later we’re in D1, which is moderate drought. When we talk about moderate drought, there is some damage to crops and either not a whole lot of water or there’s a water shortage developing. D4 is the worst of the case, where we don’t have water to spray crops and trees.”
With no rain in the forecast within the next seven days, prospects for getting out of moderate drought aren’t looking strong, Bermudez added.
October is typically one of San Antonio’s wettest months of the year.
SAWS view of the drought
The U.S. Drought Monitor is just one tool utilized by SAWS when considering local watering rules and restrictions, said Steven Siebert, a manager in SAWS’ water resources department.
SAWS drought management team also looks at the longterm outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, and historic conditions for the area, Siebert explained. He did note the Climate Prediction Center’s three-month outlook for October, November and December does forecast above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall “which is unfortunate as September and October are two of our four average wettest months with a combined average of over 7.6 inches,” he said.
Other major cities in Texas have received substantially more rainfall than San Antonio since 2019, with Houston and Dallas currently sitting in the “abnormally dry” or D0 designation by the U.S. Drought Monitor — a step below moderate drought.
San Antonio has been in significant drought over the past five years averaging 22 inches or 58% of average rainfall, Siebert said. While the area received beneficial rainfall in early September, the month ended 2.3 inches below average while also averaging 3.5 degrees warmer.
Since 2019, San Antonio has a rainfall deficit of over 50 inches.
“We overlayed the 2020s drought with the 1950s drought, and if it wasn’t for the rainfall that we experienced in 2021 — we would be well below the historical level where we were at this point in the drought of record for year five in the 1950s.”
A call for conservation
Trustee Amy Hardberger, a water attorney who often is the board’s strongest voice for conservation and environmentalism, said this trend is shocking. The cumulative effect of the last several summers is clearly showing an impact, she added.
“I feel like I’ve been tracking this closely, and I learned something today so hopefully others did as well,” Hardberger said. “The fact that it’s tracking near the drought of record is pretty stunning to me.”
As we head into fall, nights are longer and the weather will slightly cool, Siebert added, noting now is the time for residents to really focus on conservation.
Because SAWS also uses residents’ winter average to calculate their individual charge rates for the year, it’s also a good time to conserve to help lower bills, noted Trustee Eduardo Parra.
Trustee David McGee said he hopes the adoption rate of SAWS recycled water system continues to also grow, to help the city conserve in years to come.
