In what’s likely to be the last public polling before San Antonio’s unusually crowded mayoral race, UTSA’s Center for Public Opinion Research found two well-known candidates still leading the pack, but two other well-funded contenders were quickly making up ground.
UTSA’s Center for Public Opinion Research surveyed 685 likely voters between April 7 and April 9, and the poll has a +/- 3.7% margin of error.
Former Air Force Under Secretary Gina Ortiz Jones, who led the last UTSA poll in February with roughly 9%, was still the frontrunner this month, taking 13% support in a 27-candidate race.
While Ortiz Jones’ support had grown from the previous poll, Councilman John Courage (D9), who started the race in the lead last September, fell slightly, and is now polling roughly even with tech entrepreneur Beto Altamirano.
Courage and Altamirano each took about 7% in UTSA’s latest poll, while former Texas Secretary of State Rolando Pablos took roughly 5% — a major increase from the 0.8% Pablos was taking in February.
Unlike the February poll, this time candidates were listed in the order they will appear on the ballot, which put Pablos at the top of the list.
Read about all of the races on the May 3 ballot in the San Antonio Report’s 2025 Voter Guide
Just days out from the start of early voting, UTSA’s poll indicated that 45% of likely voters are still either not familiar with any of the mayoral candidates or they have not decided who they plan to vote for.
“This mayor’s race is very fluid given the number of voters who are unsure,” said Bryan Gervais, the polling center’s director and an associate professor in UTSA’s Department of Political Science and Geography. “A lot could change as the campaigns ramp up during early voting and voters make up their minds.”
Mayor Ron Nirenberg has led the city since 2017 and is term-limited from seeking reelection this year, setting up San Antonio’s first mayoral race without an incumbent on the ballot in 16 years.
Early voting runs April 22 through April 29 for the May 3 election. If no candidate takes at least 50% of the vote, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff on June 7.
As of this April poll, Gervais said, the only certain takeaway is that “if voters keep breaking the way that they have,” Ortiz Jones is “in a pretty solid position” to make it to the runoff.
Money moves
Compared to Texas’ other large cities, San Antonio sets relatively a low bar to appear on the ballot — something that’s contributed to a large number of candidates running this year.
With few opportunities to differentiate themselves in a crowded race, much of the movement in this month’s survey reflects big spending on behalf of a small handful of candidates.
Ortiz Jones and Pablos have led the pack in fundraising, thanks in part to their connections to powerful party leaders in Washington D.C. and Austin.
And Pablos is now benefitting from the help of a PAC called the Texas Economic Fund, run by Gov. Greg Abbott’s former political director, which is funding TV ads promoting Pablos’ experience bringing jobs to Texas as Secretary of State. The PAC also said it plans to pay for “media, block walking, voter contact, and advertising,” on his behalf.
Altamirano has put significant personal resources into the race, and rose from roughly 4% support in February to just under 7% in the April poll.
Courage, on the other hand, dropped out of the race and got back in just before the filing deadline. He’s raised and spent little money since then.
Five candidates remained in a pack taking between 3% and 5% support: Councilman Manny Pelaez (D8), Councilwoman Melissa Cabello Havrda (D6), Councilwoman Adriana Rocha Garcia (D4), former District 10 Councilman Clayton Perry and Department of Defense employee Tim Westley.
Of those, Pelaez recently loaned his campaign $324,000, and now has a PAC supporting him, called SA for Everyone. That group is now running TV ads promoting Pelaez’ support for local law enforcement while serving on the council.
