Despite long lines to vote and higher than normal in-person early voting numbers in the first days after polls opened, local political analysts on both sides of the aisle say turnout in Bexar County is actually underperforming expectations for a high-profile presidential election.
Rapid population growth has fueled a rise in registered voters in Bexar County, and day one of in-person early voting was 40% higher than the first day of early voting in 2020.
“It’s exciting because numbers-wise, we are breaking records,” said Laura Barberena, a San Antonio political consultant who owns the firm Viva Politics. “But typically in politics we don’t look at raw numbers, we look at percentages.”
In terms of percentages, Barberena said, voter turnout in Bexar County this year isn’t particularly different from other elections.
“I think we’ll end up [around] 57% [total turnout in Bexar County], which is actually sort of underperforming, realistically, in these kinds of elections,” she said.
Early voting will close at 8 p.m. on Friday.
After that, voters have one more opportunity to cast their ballots on Election Day, from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Elections Administrator Jacquelyn Callanen told reporters Friday morning that voter enthusiasm from the first days had “dropped off” in the final stretch.
“We were surprised, yesterday was down a little,” Callanen said. “Normally these last two days [of early voting] just sort of blow us out of the water.”
Voter registration numbers are up 9.7% from 2020 in Bexar County, leading Callanen to predict at the outset of this election that roughly 900,000 total votes would be cast.
While early votes are lower than she expected based on the registration numbers, Callanen said she hadn’t adjusted her overall turnout projection because of media reports suggesting many voters are waiting until Election Day this year.
“That’s sort of our big question, are the early votes going to be a little bit down because they’re planning to come on Election Day?” Callanen said. “In the numbers that we’re running, they didn’t show up.”
At a pre-election panel on Thursday, political operatives on the left and right had different ideas about what those final days could look like.
Among the factors to consider when comparing 2024 to 2020 is that early voting was extended by an extra week in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, said Ana Ramón, executive director of the progressive group Annie’s List.
A higher priority was also placed on mail-in ballots during the pandemic.
“What we’re seeing across the state is — I would say more from the Democratic political side of the aisle — is our folks are kind of waiting,” Ramón said.
“That could change, especially if a lot of what we assume nationwide happens in Texas, which is that we see a steady increase going into the weekend and then on Election Day,” she said.
Republican strategist Kelton Morgan, whose political firm CSG Inc. does direct voter outreach in San Antonio, said right now, the early voting data in Bexar County is hardly “indicative of a blue wave.”
“The most interesting thing that I’m seeing is that the people who are voting are people who always vote,” he said. “There is not some huge surge in people coming out of the woodwork for the first time that would change the dynamic of a typical election.”
Bexar County in the spotlight
Going back to raw numbers, Morgan said that statewide in Texas, after nine days of early voting, the total votes cast were down about 1.5 million from 2020.
That’s not likely to be the case in Bexar County.
“Overall this [metro statistical area] is the fastest-growing region in the country, so we’re going to have bigger raw numbers than we had,” Morgan said of Bexar County.
From Democrats’ perspective, Ramón said that scoring a statewide victory would require 42% of the overall electorate to come from bluer areas in Texas’ four largest counties — Dallas County, Travis County (home to Austin), Harris County (home to Houston) and Bexar County.
“Right now, I think we’re at 38% or 39%,” she said. While that may sound close, she added, in Texas, a “couple of points away” is between 500,000 and 600,000 votes.
Long-term, however, Ramón said the state’s population shifts mean Texas — and specifically its major urban counties — will likely remain a top priority for national Democrats, even if their unheard-of spending in this year’s U.S. Senate race comes up short.
“We have 40% the state that’s Latino. We have the largest African American population in the country. We have the fastest Southeast Asian population growth in the country,” Ramón said. “That’s why I think there are national entities that are looking at Texas in a real way.”
Turning Texas into a more reliable swing state or a place where a Democratic U.S. presidential candidate could win is essential to the party’s future, she added.
“Regardless of what happens this election cycle, either we have to change the map and the route to the Electoral College, or we have to expand it,” she said.
